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AMC EARNINGS 🍿

Here’s one for all my AMC degenz. And also for the people trying to fade ‘em.

For everyone else, I’ll get you up to speed quick: AMC Entertainment. Yes, the movie theatre chain. Renowned mainly for its abysmal performance on paper, yet the stock somehow just keeps. going. up. 🔥

It’s basically the #1 memestonk in the world; adored by retail traders who trade it as a joke, hated by Wall Street exec’s who think doing so is sacrilegious, and talked about EVERYWHERE.

This week is a particularly special week for AMC fanz & haterz: the company is scheduled to report Q4 earnings today after the market closes, and AMC earnings is always a spectacle to behold. Mainly because no one ever knows wtf is gonna happen.

I mean, just look at its stock price heading into today’s report — the stock was down -50% between September & January, and has since risen from the ashes, climbing +94% so far in 2023, +38% over the past week alone. Madness. 😈

So… naturally, being the news monitoring nerds we are, we decided it would be interesting to analyze some AMC earnings chatter & see just how good (or bad) people think the report is gonna be. Here’s what we found:

AMC Earnings: News Sentiment

First, the methodology: we went back through the past 45-days-worth of finance articles (~40K total posts) and calculated the sentiment (ie. positive or negative language) expressed about each stock in all the chatter.

From there, we then filtered down to look at only the posts pertaining to earnings reports (ie. containing keywords like ‘earnings’, ‘revenue’, ‘forecast’, etc.). Then, to be ~statistical~ as possible, we calculated the average sentiment expressed amongst three groups: 1) posts about AMC + earnings, 2) posts about AMC (but not earnings), and 3) posts about earnings (but not AMC).

Here’s what we found:

AMC ‘earnings’ sentiment: -45% (bearish) 🔴🔴
AMC non-’earnings’ sentiment: -9% (slightly bearish) 🔴
non-AMC ‘earnings’ sentiment: +49% (bullish) 🟢🟢

The results are pretty clear to me here — folks tend to be pretty optimistic when it comes to the average earnings report (probs because most reports tend to beat estimates), and somewhat pessimistic when it comes to anything AMC-related.

But when it comes to AMC’s earnings report, people are downright NEGATIVE. 👇

Top AMC Nuggets

🔴 AMC | 📰 Yahoo Finance | Q4 earnings outlook

“Dismal Admissions, as well as Food and Beverage revenues, are expected to have negatively impacted AMC’s performance. However, increased average ticket pricing is likely to have aided the company.”

🔴 AMC | 📰 MarketWatch | Q4 earnings outlook

“Theater chain expected to report a 12th consecutive quarterly loss, but sales are expected to top $1 billion thanks to ‘Avatar: The Way of Water’”

🔴 AMC | 📰 Yahoo Finance | stock pumps, hearing risks delay APE conversion

“While chatter spiked, amateur investors seemed to take advantage of the gains by dumping the shares, with AMC among the 10 most-sold assets on Fidelity’s platform.

🔴 AMC | 📰 247WallSt | earnings preview & shareholder’s meeting

“While AMC’s numbers are expected to improve year over year, the bigger news is the company’s special shareholders’ meeting coming next month. AMC wants to increase its authorized share count and has come up with a novel approach after trying and failing to get shareholder support last year…”

🔴 AMC | 📰 TheStreet | short-squeeze commentary

“AMC stock is seeing increasing short demand and skyrocketing borrow fees. Plus, an important vote and a critical earnings report for the company are both fast approaching.”

Other Earnings Nuggets

🟢 MNST | 📰 Zacks | Optimistic earnings outlook for Monster

“Monster Beverage (MNST) is expected to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended December 2022.”

🟢 RIVN | 🐣 @Benzinga | Rivian’s losses are expected to improve…

“Analysts, on average, expect Rivian to report a narrower fourth-quarter loss of $1.94 per share and revenue of $742.39 million. [reports earnings after the bell today] $RIVN https://t.co/hifXbvDd8z”

🔴 TGT | 📰 Zacks | Target’s expecting a major earnings decline…

“Target is expected to post earnings of $1.38 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -56.7%.”

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.

SENTIMENT KEY: 🟢=bullish, 🌑=neutral, 🔴=bearish

Market Mood

♒ AMC: negative earnings sentiment