♒ Jim Cramer's stockpicking track record #2
Happy March to those who celebrate. Today we analyze Jim Cramer's most-recent month's worth of stockpicking horrendous-ness
Hey, this is Market Mood — the only newsletter that doomscrolls stock market news for you. So you can spend more time watching those Tik Toks of tiny little dogs asleep in purses… or whatever the kids are watching these days.
Cramer: Still an Awful Stockpicker? 👨🦲
A look back over Jim Cramer’s stock Tweets… Round II
Everybody loves Jim Cramer. Some love the personality, others love to hate on him. Either way, Jim is the most well-known stock market characters on the planet, renowned nowadays for apparently being a pretty bad stock picker.
He’s like a walking meme — a pro stock-talker who sucks at picking stocks. 😂 Twitter has exploded over the past few months with parody Jim Cramer accounts, and entire Inverse ETF’s dedicated to shorting his picks.
So last month, we decided to see for ourselves: just how bad are his Twitter stockpicks? The TLDR; between August-January (6mo), trading solely on Jim Cramer’s tweets about stocks would have lost you -83% of your money. That’s like, actually horrendous. And if you missed that report, you can check it out here.
But now, with the dawning of another month (happy March to those who celebrate), we figured it was time for another update. To see if his stockpicking awfulness is perpetual.
So here it is: Jim Cramer’s updated Twitter stockpicking track record over the past 6mo (September thru January):
Analysis of @JimCramer’s Tweet Picks:
August September, Jim has tweeted 390 times (excluding replies). Within these, we found 54 explicit bullish/bearish references to publicly traded stocks. So we went back and calculated the percent change of each stock’s price over the two weeks that followed. Here’s the results:
Over the past 6mo, if you bought Jim’s picks when he mentioned them and sold 2 weeks later each time, you’d have lost -64% of your money.
Translation: if you started with $1000 in September, you’d now have $363.39 on your Cramer account. Not great.
He’s still way more bullish than bearish; he had 16 bullish picks over the past month (🟢62%), and 10 bearish picks (🔴38%)
Both his worst pick & best pick were BBBY 0.00 — it's the stock he Tweets about most; he lives and dies by it. 💀
Being fair, the past month has actually been his best month yet (highlighted in dark blue below). He went from being down -80% to down -64% 😅
THE TAKEAWAY: so there you have it. Jim is still pretty damn bad, but the needle is moving in the right direction. Maybe he’ll make a come back next month? (if he does, we’ll be the first to let you know).
The important thing to always remember here is that Jim is actually what he says he is: an *entertainer* — not a stockpicking guru (because newsflash, anyone who *is* really really good at picking stocks, probably wouldn’t share their personal secret picks with the world anyways).
Looking ahead: this time around got me thinking… it’s always interesting looking at Jim Cramer because of his reputation for being a bad stockpicker. But how does he compare to the rest of FinTwit? 🤔
Like if we took the top 50 Twitter stock pickers and ranked them against Jim, where would he stand? ie. is he absolutely bad, or ~relatively~ bad. If you think a FinTwit leaderboard would be interesting, like this post & LMK; if we get more than 10 likes on this one, I’ll do a deep dive into it next week. 😈
Top trending commentary parsed from news coverage…
🟢 CSCO 0.00 | 📰 Entrepreneur.com | 🗣️ Cisco’s head-n-shoulder’s net income margins…
“Cisco’s trailing 12-month net income margin of 21.26% is 636.2% higher than the industry average of 2.89%.”
🟢 LMND 0.00 | 📄 SteveWagsInvest | 🗣️ Lemonade’s a high-conviction substack stock…
The company offers a digital and artificial intelligence-based platform for various insurances and for settling claims and paying premiums… this is a business I have very high conviction with, and I started a position with a cost-basis around $17/share. I will focus on consolidating this position in the future assuming execution continues.
🔴 BYND 0.00 | 📰 TipRanks | 🗣️ Beyond Meat’s looooong road ahead…
“With no analyst Buy ratings, it’s clear that Beyond Meat is more of a show-me story, given management hasn’t had a track record of success in the firm’s relatively limited time as a publicly-traded firm… The average Beyond Meat stock price target is $11.50, implying downside potential of 32.1%.”
🔴 PFE 0.00 | 📰 InsiderMonkey | 🗣️ Pfizer’s COVID drug reign may have peaked…
“Although Pfizer’s continues to report strong performance of its core drugs, sales of Pfizer’s COVID vaccine and treatment have likely peaked and sales are expected to decline going forward.”
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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.
SENTIMENT KEY: 🟢=bullish, 🌑=neutral, 🔴=bearish
Celebrating March, yes -- but now especially celebrating because I never took any of Jim Cramer's investing advice. His pumping of $CRM over the years has really been extra-egregious, it turns out...